The crisis has made them totally obsolete

The highly sensitive numbers, because they will provide the basis for the reform of pensions announced by Nicolas Sarkozy for the next year. The orientation of the pensions Board (COR) has begun the process of revision of the forecasts of deficit in the long term for all of the plans to take account of the economic crisis. Recent projections date back to 2007. Carried out in the midst of growth elles relied on overly optimistic assumptions: unemployment reduced to 4.5 from 2015 and a rapid improvement in the productivity of labour ( 1.8 per year). The crisis has made them totally obsolete. The unemployment rate should be around 10 at the end of the year.

The Council must therefore change part of the economic assumptions underlying the projections. The debate, which will be conducted by the Labour Minister, Xavier Darcos, announces heated with the unions, who fear that the table be blackened purposely for reform. For unemployment, the COR could still retain a rate of 4.5, but a term more distant (at least 2020). The productivity of labour, it should build on a slower progression of 1.5 per year (instead of 1.8), to take account of the prospects for growth. These two changes will have a significant impact on the deficit. The level of employment directly affects that of contributions.

"Illuminating debate."

But other variables will also be debates. The COR should indeed proposing to alter the assumptions of assessment of the insured period. It was so far on a continued increase in the periods of insurance, to take into account the increases planned by the 2003 reform, up to 41 years and a half in 2020. Beyond this date, the cursor was blocked (because the Fillon law is limited to this deadline). In its new projections, the Council would be the hypothesis of a continuous progression of the period of assessment until 2050, to at least 43 years. In applying the rule of a report kept constant between time and duration of retirement (which progresses with life expectancy).

"Elongation of the period of assessment after 2020, can encrypt its impact, it is not as much as we will accept it", warns Bernard Devy, representing FO Council. "He will have to take into account this hypothesis to inform debates, even if it is not neutral," said Danièle Karniewicz (GSC). The question will be whether if the increase in the duration of contribution beyond 2020 will appear in the central scenario, or a variation simply.

Comparing impacts

Another debate: the Medef has asked the COR to calculate the impact of raising the legal age for retirement more than 60 years, a track by Nicolas Sarkozy. It will therefore be able to compare the impact of the two measures: extension of the period of assessment and raising the legal age. A previous encryption has shown that the report of the legal age had a more positive effect than the lengthening of the period of assessment until 2020-2025. Beyond this date, it is the opposite which is found, due to the continued lengthening of the duration of the studies of new generations and their later entry into working life.

One thing is certain, future projections will be State of a need for more funding in 2020 as the horizon of 2050, even taking into account a lengthening of the period of assessment. The Board of pensions provided until then an annual deficit of nearly $ 25 billion euros in 2020 and 70 billion euros in 2050 for all pension plans.